[TRANS] Estimated economic impact of Arafes 2020

[karened]

Translation of this article: https://t.co/PIvOyqvypW?amp=1

Originally posted on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/arashickarened/status/1325375337086119938?s=20

Warning: BIG numbers ahead.  The numbers are mind-blowing. All numbers and stats are estimates so just for reading. 

If Corona didn't happen, fans would attend the concert at the new Kokuritsu stadium. The capacity is 80,000. Assuming the ticket price to be JPY10,000, the total sales from tickets alone will be JPY800mil. 

During the 5 Domes concert tour (2018-19), there was a total of 2.375mil attendees. Tickets costed JPY9,000 each, total ticket sales was JPY21.3bil. That involved 50 Dome concerts so on average one Dome concert brings in 47,500 attendees with JPY427.5mil in ticket sales. 

By projecting the fanclub size and assuming that 1mil fanclub members watched part 1 (which is only open to FC members), the total viewers for both parts of the concert is expected to be 10mil. 

Even if the 10mil estimate (1/12 of Japan's total population) is not reached, just taking 10% of that, giving 1mil viewers buying tickets at JPY4,800 each (assuming they are FC members), gives a sum of JPY4.8bil. 

Assuming that the 1mil fanclub members watched part 1 and also part 2, just from fanclub members only, total ticket sales is JPY9.6bil (close to JPY10bil). 

From the starting estimate of 10mil total viewers, that means the remaining 8mil viewers are general public purchasing at JPY5,800 per ticket, giving JPY46.4bil additional revenue.  In other words, just from ticket sales alone, total revenue is estimated to be JPY56.4bil.

For last year's 50 Domes concert tour, the ticket revenue was JPY21.3bil. This means that the scale of this year's Arafes is 2.6 times of last year's 50 Domes tour. Which means, this single day alone reached the impact of a single Dome concert by 130 times.

However, there is a huge difference in the cost of holding 130 Dome concerts compared to a single concert. This online concert is probably the most profitable online concert in history. 

This brings a huge impact to possibilities in the entertainment industry going forward. Yes, rather than holding many Dome concerts,  the concerts can be delivered via online broadcasts, unlimited by the venue capacity and maximising profit margin. 

On costs:  The venue rental cost is about JPY31.5mil. Setting aside a budget of JPY100mil for rehearsals and pre-shoots would be sufficient.

Apart from Arashi, there were 135 performers at the concert. If each performer is paid JPY1mil, total appearance fees for them is JPY135mil. Production staff totalled 1,800 persons. If each is paid JPY0.5mil, that sums to JPY900mil. 

Stage effects would cost a maximum of JPY3bil.   Meaning, including rental fees and other costs, total costs would probably be JPY4.5bil. 

If Corona did not happen and the concert was held physically, it's impossible to set a budget of JPY4.5bil for a concert that can only bring JPY800mil of ticket revenue. But with the online concert manner of delivery, the value of the cost incurred can be maximised. 

In addition, assuming that the 10mil attendees each bought JPY3,000 worth of concert goods, total revenue from sale of concert goods is JPY30bil. Even if we do a 50% reduction of the price, revenue would still be JPY15bil. 

In just one concert, total revenue of JPY56.4bil (tickets) + JPY15bil (goods) could have been JPY71.4bil. 

The movie Demon Slayer recorded revenue of JPY4.6bil in threee days, and JPY10bil in 10 days. If we assume that the movie brought in revenue of JPY1bil per day, Arafes's revenue in 1 day was 2.5 month's times of the movie's revenue.

[T/N: Read https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Media-Entertainment/Demon-Slayer-breaks-box-office-record-held-by-Spirited-Away… for background on Demon Slayer, which broke Japan box-office records previously held by Spirited Away.]

Even after deductible estimated costs of JPY4.5bil, total gross profit is JPY66.9bil.  If we assume total profits made by Arashi to be JPY21.4bil per year, Arashi had reached 3 years' worth of that amount in just one day.

This is Arashi. Legend.